Welcome to Indian Share Market
Updated on 13 Aug 2017
Four key factors are likely to chart market direction this week
The market breached a continuous five week gaining streak and fell sharply by more than 1,100 points on the Sensex, weighed by geopolitical tensions surrounding around North Korea and disappointing earnings.
The 50-share NSE Nifty plunged 3.5 percent or 355.60 points from 10,066.40 level to 9,710.80 in the passing week, which was the biggest weekly correction in current calendar year.
The Nifty Midcap lost 5.5 percent, though it recovered in the last session of the week and lot of beaten down good quality stocks rebounded.
Top 5 factors that made market to correct
1) The indication from mid-term Economic Survey of likely failure in meeting the upper end of FY18 economic growth forecast of 6.5-7.5 percent.
2) Doklam standoff between India & China
3) War of words between US and North korea leading to fears of war
4) and SEBI's order to ban trading in 331 'shell companies' also hit market sentiment. However, the Securities Appellate Tribunal (SAT) lifted trading curbs on 8 firms but asked to continue probe in all 331 firms.
5) Importantly, Nifty and Sensex arose ahead of fundamentals. Nifty has rose from 8000 in Jan 2017 to 10100 in July 2017. This made some correction. Actually, it was a one-way rally since the start of the year 2017 and Nifty surged nearly 24 percent to hit the five-digit mark - 10,137.85 (record high).
June quarter earnings season is expected to end next week. About 600 compaines including Coal India, Tata Power, Grasim Industries, Bajaj Hindusthan, NBCC, MTNL, Dredging Corporation, DB Realty, Future Consumer, Infibeam Incorporation, JK Tyre, Jindal Drilling, Jain Irrigation, IVRCL, MEP Infra, Prestige Estates, Sadbhav Engineering, Rolta, Ruchi Soya and Suven Life will announce their earnings on Monday. It is expected to be the last heavy earnings day.
For the rest of truncated week, about 40 small companies will release their earnings. Market have holiday on Tuesday(15 Aug) and Thursday (17 Aug - Parsi day).
Geopolitical tensions, which intensified in the passing week due to ongoing threats between the United States and North Korea, would be a key factor to watch out.
The crisis started with the announcement by North Korea that it has the capability to fit smaller nuclear weapons on missiles. It further warned that it is considering targeting the US base of Guam with a missile. The US also responded with dire warnings.
On Friday, the US President Donald Trump wrote in his tweet, "Military solutions are now fully in place, locked and loaded, should North Korea act unwisely. Hopefully, (North Korean leader) Kim Jong Un will find another path!"
In other tweet, he said North Korea's leader would "regret" making any "overt" threat, keeping up the pressure after a string of combative warnings.
Consumer price index and wholesale price index inflation for July will be announced on August 14. Retail inflation in June hit a record low of 1.54 percent and WPI inflation dropped to 11-month low at 0.9 percent.
As we stated earlier, Nifty already corrected till 9700 from 10,000.
Now there are probabilities that nifty would consolidate at 9700 and move in upper direction but any major trigger from Geopolitical would make market vulnerable and lead to some more correction.
On the upper side, nifty trades and closed above 9800 then further upside journey is assured.